Due to El Niño, this year's monsoon rainfall is at its lowest level in the past 5 years, posing a threat to agriculture

In the year 2023, monsoon rainfall in India has been the lowest in the past five years, primarily due to the El Niño phenomenon, which is at its weakest since 2018. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), it has resulted in the driest August in over a century, extending the dry spell well into August.

The monsoon, crucial for India's $3 trillion economy, provides nearly 70% of the required rainfall for crop irrigation, reservoirs, and aquifers replenishment. With approximately half of India's agricultural land already suffering from irrigation deficits, the significance of monsoonal rainfall for agricultural production cannot be overstated.

However, this year's rainfall deficit may lead to food inflation, as staple food items such as rice, pulses, wheat, and vegetables could become more expensive. India, the world's second-largest producer of rice, wheat, and sugar, may also face restrictions on the export of these commodities and duty-free imports of pulses.

From June to September, the country has seen only 94% of the long-term average rainfall, the lowest since 2018, with IMD initially forecasting a 4% rainfall deficit for the season. El Niño, characterized by warming of the Pacific Ocean, typically leads to dry conditions in the Indian subcontinent. This year's monsoon has been erratic, with June witnessing rainfall 9% below normal due to its delayed onset. However, July saw improvement, with rainfall 13% above average. August, on the other hand, set a record as the driest month with a 36% deficit. September brought some relief, with rainfall 13% above normal.

Despite the monsoon shortfall, IMD expects normal rainfall from October to December. However, above-normal temperatures are expected across most parts of the country in October, indicating that the impact of El Niño may not be over yet.