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SkyMet, a private weather forecasting agency, has predicted that India is likely to experience a normal monsoon in 2024. This forecast suggests that after a period of warmer-than-normal days during the summers preceding the monsoon rains from June to September, there will be some relief. The agency suggests that the expected normal monsoon in India in 2024 could have significant implications, especially for the agricultural sector. SkyMet is quite hopeful that the monsoon rainfall over the four-month period will be up to 102 percent of the long-term average of 868.6 mm.
This forecast holds promise for agricultural activities heavily dependent on irrigation from this rainfall. India's agricultural lands, where irrigation facilities are lacking, rely on monsoon rains for cultivating crops such as rice, maize, sugarcane, cotton, and soybeans. Predictions of a normal monsoon can lead to improvements in agricultural productivity, higher crop yields, and overall economic development in the agricultural sector.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had earlier forecasted that during the period of April to June, there could be 10-20 days of heatwave conditions recorded in various parts of the country, compared to the usual four to eight days. Jatin Singh, Managing Director of SkyMet, mentions that the La Niña is strengthening rapidly, and during La Niña years, monsoon circulation becomes robust over the years.
He indicated that there are expectations of sufficiently good rainfall in the southern, western, and northwestern regions of the country, encompassing agricultural areas in northern India such as Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh.
The prediction of a normal monsoon in 2024 brings a glimmer of hope for India's agricultural sector, which has been grappling with challenges stemming from extreme weather events in recent years. Timely and sufficient rainfall during the monsoon period can have significant implications for crop yields, food security, and the overall economic prosperity of the nation.