Farmers to remain vigilant early arrival likely of monsoon

The diminishing impact of La Niña suggests favorable rainfall prospects in the early stages of this year's monsoon season in India. This weakening trend of La Niña, coupled with the potential transition to El Niño, bodes well for the monsoon in India this year. However, owing to climate change, weather patterns are becoming increasingly unpredictable and severe. Hence, it is imperative to closely monitor the latest forecasts for any updates pertaining to the monsoon.

Likelihood of La Niña Formation in April-June:

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States, the current La Niña phase is projected to shift to El Niño between April and June. 

Monsoon Forecast: Consequently, there is a probability of La Niña intensifying during June-August, indicating favorable rainfall conditions in India.

Temperature Rise: Additionally, there is an anticipation of above-average temperatures in India during May.

Understanding La Niña and El Niño:

La Niña and El Niño denote alterations in sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, far off the coast of South America. During La Niña, the water becomes anomalously warm, whereas during El Niño, it cools down.
These fluctuations impact weather phenomena worldwide. La Niña typically results in below-average rainfall in India during the monsoon, while El Niño has the opposite effect.

Impact of La Niña:

As per the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the ongoing phase of La Niña ranked among the five most potent phases on record for 2023-24. This led to above-normal temperatures across many regions globally. The WMO has cautioned that the repercussions of La Niña might persist until at least May 2024.