Increased Hope for India Agricultural Sector with Improved Southwest Monsoon Forecasts

Several meteorological organizations are predicting abundant rainfall during this year's southwest monsoon season in the Indian subcontinent. According to Geojit Insights, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) anticipates above-average rainfall. The forecast suggests 106 percent of normal rainfall during the extended period from June to September.

Private forecasters, Skymet Weather Services, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center, have also confirmed similar predictions. Last year, the southwest monsoon concluded with a deficiency of 6 percent from the long-period average, primarily due to La Niña, resulting in widespread disparities in rainfall distribution.

However, while some regions typically receive good rainfall, others experienced deficits, with ample rainfall in arid regions like western Rajasthan and Saurashtra-Kutch. Among the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 7 subdivisions, including Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura, witnessed below-average rainfall.

This year's prediction of normal monsoon rainfall comes as a relief at a time when agricultural production is declining, and food inflation is high, exacerbated by decreasing water levels in reservoirs.
The sluggish growth in agriculture is mainly due to a decline in agricultural production. A 6 percent decrease in food grain production is expected in 2023-24. Last year, deficient monsoon and the effects of La Niña significantly impacted water levels across the country's reservoirs due to warm, dry weather today.

Currently, water reservoir storage stands at 31 percent of total storage capacity, significantly lower than the 10-year average.