Leading weather forecasting agency Skymet has predicted that the 2025 monsoon is expected to be normal. The country may receive around 103% of average rainfall between June and September. Good rainfall is expected during July and August, which could prove beneficial for farmers.
According to Skymet’s forecast, the upcoming monsoon season is likely to be within the normal range. Rainfall during the four-month period (June to September) is expected to be 103% of the long-period average (LPA), with a margin of error of ±5%. A monsoon is considered normal if the rainfall is between 96% and 104% of the LPA.
Skymet Managing Director Jatin Singh said that the La Niña effect has weakened and is no longer active. Also, there are no signs of El Niño developing, which usually affects monsoon patterns. This year, the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is expected to remain neutral. In addition, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to remain positive, which is a favourable condition for rainfall.
The report suggests that rainfall may be slightly below normal in June, but monsoon activity is expected to pick up in July and August. The second half of the season is likely to be stronger and bring more rain than the beginning.
Region-wise Rainfall Expectations: Skymet forecasts better rainfall in western and southern parts of India, including states like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Kerala, Karnataka, and Goa. However, the northeastern region and hilly states of North India such as Meghalaya, Sikkim, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh may receive below-normal rainfall.
Rainfall Probability Distribution:
Month-wise Rain Forecast:
Monsoon 2025 is expected to be favourable for India, especially for farmers. With better rainfall likely during July and August, the agricultural season may benefit significantly.
